Apple vs. Open: Doomed to Repeat History?

Continuing this recent theme of Android specific blog posts, I'd like to point out the remarkable repeat of history we have going on here.

Consider Apple and their "market creation" and "market leader" position they've achieved with the iPhone. Consider its key attributes: a closed system environment in every respect: closed operating system, a tightly controlled 3rd party application solution set, strict limitations on what software is allowed on the devices, and a supporting Apple proprietary media solution (iTunes).

On the scene arrives Android, an open operating platform available to all. And quickly a new business ecology is born, consisting of a myriad of companies building Android/ARM based devices to rival Apple's, all similar but all unique as well.

Does any of this sound familiar? I hope at least a few readers are old enough to remember Apple's position in "personal computing" in the early 1980's with the Apple II (and later MacIntosh) computer. They were "dominant", with their closed proprietary technology. Along came IBM with an open component approach, with all the critical components (DOS, Intel x86 microprocessors, and boot loaders, backplane and I/O specifications), generally available to all comers. I remember the full page "welcome" add put out by Apple, welcoming IBM to the party, and of course the "once only" Super Bowl ad announcing the Mac a few years later.

So what happened back then? We all know the story: the IBM PC "clone" business got rocking, and soon Apple's share in the market dropped to less than 20%. Open, clone-able, with lots of choice and variety from a multitude of vendors won out handily over single vendor, closed, more expensive and arguably "better".

The story is repeating with the iPhone and Android, and in my opinion, the story will continue to repeat. In three years, Apple smart phone share is likely to be down to a fraction of their current leadership share, and you will see massive innovation, variety and choice in the Android based product field. Apple's closed "complete ecosystem" solution will be better...and still won't win.

A side note to all of this is the question of where is Microsoft? Here we have what I believe is a fundamental shift in the computing paradigm for the masses, from personal computers to "intimate computers", computers that stay yet closer at all times to your body than those big and bulky "personal" computers. Where is Microsoft in this transition? Answer: nowhere in sight, at least thus far. The Windows environment has failed to be successful in the multiple attempts to adapt it to the smart phone form factor. The Kin product was a complete disaster and potentially reflective of a real inability to innovate successfully inside Microsoft. Apparently they will be making a fresh try soon with a "Window 7 phone"; it will be fascinating to see if they can recover and establish a serious market position.

In the meantime, the Apple vs. Android wars heat up. Apple yesterday announced a loosening of restrictions on iPhone developers, and everyone thinks this change is a function of competitive pressure from Android, and I'd have to agree. Competition is fundamental to successful capitalism and generally promoting market openness and freedom, and while I am a happy iPhone user, I like to see competition, choice and a lessening of market controlling restrictions.

To sum it up, if I was a betting man, I'd put my personal bet on Android to be the winner here. History tells us it's the likely outcome --- unless Apple will challenge that outcome by signficiantly opening up their walled garden.