Thursday, January 6, 2011

A New Decade of Computing!

2010 is over, and a new decade is beginning to unfold. We have a tidal wave of computing change occurring, indeed it is really just getting started.

"Smart phones", which I prefer to think of as hand held computers with cellular I/O support, are by far the fastest growing class of computer systems today. I've suggested it before and I'll suggest it again: what we are witnessing is the rise of a "fourth wave" of computing. The first wave was the mainframe, the second was the minicomputer, the third wave was the PC. Interestingly, the "personal" computer was personal only in the sense that you, as an individual, had your own. The rise of the truly "handheld" computing device, which also adds cell phone I/O (for both data and voice transmission, thus making them "smart phones"), is more accurately a "personal" computer, in that the computer generally stays in contact with your body. However, since "personal computer" isn't available as a moniker, I've suggested "intimate computer" as a more accurate and expansive name for this new computing class.

What can we learn from history, from the forces we see at work, from our own logical assessment, and even perhaps from our intuition, about how this new intimate computing wave will unfold?

First, as to form factor: I do not think we are anywhere near "done" with evolution of form factor in these new intimate computing devices. Just as the desk-side/desk-top PC fairly quickly evolved into a wildly popular "laptop" form, I predict that the current form factor of a rectangular hand held "bar" will evolve into yet more intimate forms. Generally I'd call this "wearable computers" and all that that implies. The specific forms that will be successful are hard to predict, but it's sure to be a fascinating arena with multiple audio and visual possibilities!

The challenge of new form factors will of course be I/O between us and the computer. While voice is an obvious possibility for input, voice strikes me as being problematic for the innumerable times you want to "use the computer" but speaking extensively is inappropriate or just not comfortable. Audio output is easily dealt with via the current forms of ear based speakers, but perhaps during the decade we will some something more subtle, a la bone induction or some other means of bypassing the need for external speaker based output.

Visual output requirements would seem to take us back to some kind of "hand held screen" form factor, but I think this leads to a very likely "wearable" form factor that can address multiple needs in an integrated manner. Glasses. Yes, glasses, where visual output is projected onto the inside of the glass and is seen as an "overlay" on the outside visible world, similar to heads up displays in aircraft. Such a form factor can easily include audio output via integrated ear buds. Voice input is obvious but as I said, not ideal, and the human input side is probably the area I am least able to see what innovations might develop. Sensors on finger tips that allow some kind of finger movement based textual input? Perhaps we'll get to internet access and general computing paradigms where textual input is generally obsolete! Or perhaps some kind of "sub-vocal" input means will be created, allowing "voicing" that is performed silently relative to the outside world!

If you think that I am alone or far fetched in my thinking, then perhaps you were not at the Open Mobile Summit late last year in San Francisco. I heard a few companies talking about these trends and sharing thoughts on concept products that might one day appear. One company showed a "mirror mirror on the wall who is the fairest of them all" concept where as you brush you teeth in the morning, you engage in I/O activites from getting the weather, news and sports, and sending them on to friends. Another company decryied the current "heads down" paradigm of smart phone usage, promising to lift up the heads of people everywhere with use of their future products. I don't believe my ruminations are entirely speculative!

Of course where innovation goes, crime is sure to follow. It's an immutable law of nature. What might be the evolution of "computer viruses", and more generally, the entire arena of "cybercrime"? As noted in prior blogs, this area isn't just kid stuff or even just "malicious people" stuff anymore. This is hard core major organized crime stuff! Billions of $'s are being stolen, every year, both in outright cash and in more subtle economic forms (intellectual property in particular).

Even today, we already have examples of viruses infecting intimate computing devices. We have an example of malware hiding under a veneer of a legitimate application (watching a new movie trailer) directly monetizing its infection by making toll calls charged to the service plan of the owner of the smart phone. It's a safe bet that ALL the forms of viruses, malware, bots and botnets, and the like will move through the intimate computing landscape.

Do the specifics of intimate computers enable new and different forms of malware? Note: I'm not referring to the detailed level of "yes there will be differences because it's Linux or Symbian or XX underneath not Windows or OS/X". Are there new and unique attributes of intimate computers that will enable whole new classes of malware? If so, what are those unique attributes?

First, the "universal" connectivity of intimate computing devices to the cellular infrastructure is a unique attribute. Second, the popularity of mobile apps (downloaded to and run as independent programs) as the basis for functionality extension is rather unique. Yes we all have loaded applications onto our PC's, but in general we are rather selective and judicious about that, loading those apps from large well established and recognized legitimate vendors, and we generally load relatively few in number. The intimate computer world is shaping up very differently where loading many tens and even hundreds of little apps from all kinds of no-name vendors is business as usual!

Do the apps represent a new means of malware infection? Well, to a large extent the same issue was present in PC's. However, what we have here is a huge different in SCALE. BILLIONS of apps are being downloaded; Gartner is projecting approximately 30 BILLION app downloads into intimate computers by 2013. Is the opportunity for large scale infection substantially higher for these intimate computers? Clearly, it is.

What about the cellular I/O that is fundamental and pervasive on these devices? What can malware do with that? I truly don't know, but one thing I'm 100% certain of: there are some very smart minds out there, with advanced technology knowledge, getting paid by very evil minds with lots of money and no compunctions or morals, thinking about this as a tremendous (criminal) revenue generating opportunity. And that puts intellectual property at risk, not to mention business models and privacy.

So, how do we move forward in our mobile, connected, app-loaded world? With excitement and innovation, but also with consideration for the defenses required to safeguard assets in this brave new world (apologies to Aldous Huxley). If this stirs your thinking a little as we march into the madness of a new decade, I've accomplished my goal for today. Happy New Year, and here's to an exciting second decade of the millenium!